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Iowa Class 5A Playoff Machine

Starting…

Who makes the Class 5A playoffs, where they're seeded and who they'd play. Pick your team, then tap any game in the game list to change its winner and watch everything update.

Settings
  • Focus team: the team the Team and Pods pages are about. Anyone can pick their own. To link straight to a team, add # and its name to the page link, e.g. #johnston or #dallas-center-grimes.
  • Reset / Favorites: "Reset every game to the odds" clears your picks. "Favorites win every game" gives one exact season with no upsets. Your own picks in the game list always override the odds.
  • Non-5A games: games between two teams outside 5A, like 4A vs 4A. They never decide who's in directly, but they shift RPI. If Le Mars (4A) loses more games, every 5A team that played Le Mars gets a slightly lower opponents' win %. "Play out at the model's odds" lets them go either way (more realistic). "Favorites always win" locks them, which is needed for one exact RPI table.
  • Runs: how many seasons to simulate. More runs means steadier numbers, but slower. With 15 or fewer uncertain games the page skips simulation and runs every combination exactly.
  • Save scenario: keeps your picks in this browser only; other people don't see them.

Remaining 5A games

Class 5A playoff projections at a glance

Updated Sep 26, 2026. Title favorites: Johnston (33%), Dowling Catholic (30%), Ankeny (19%), Southeast Polk (8%), Waukee (3%). On the bubble: Valley (88%), Indianola (78%), Urbandale (70%), Prairie (70%), Pleasant Valley (56%), Iowa City High (54%), Iowa City West (18%), Norwalk (17%).

TeamRecordProjected RPIMake playoffsReach DomeWin state
Southeast Polk5-00.6529>99%54%8%
Dowling Catholic4-10.6581>99%76%30%
Johnston4-10.6742>99%79%33%
Ankeny5-00.6797>99%71%19%
Sioux City East4-10.6108>99%24%2%
Waukee3-20.6042>99%27%3%
Bettendorf4-10.5905>99%5%<1%
Iowa City Liberty3-20.6005>99%15%1%
Cedar Falls4-10.601199%10%<1%
Waukee Northwest3-20.583299%19%2%
Dallas Center-Grimes3-20.577299%7%<1%
Valley2-30.554088%7%<1%
Indianola3-20.544678%2%<1%
Urbandale3-20.536170%1%<1%
Prairie3-20.540170%<1%<1%
Pleasant Valley3-20.526056%<1%<1%
Iowa City High2-30.526854%2%<1%
Iowa City West2-30.494118%<1%<1%
Norwalk2-30.490417%<1%<1%
Ankeny Centennial2-30.491316%<1%<1%
Cedar Rapids Kennedy3-20.490516%<1%<1%
Des Moines Roosevelt3-20.484612%<1%<1%
Council Bluffs Lincoln3-20.48345%<1%<1%
Linn-Mar1-40.44972%<1%<1%
Waterloo West2-30.4473<1%<1%<1%
Dubuque Senior2-30.4422<1%<1%<1%
Davenport Central3-20.4502<1%<1%<1%
Ottumwa2-30.4128<1%<1%<1%
Des Moines Lincoln3-20.4124<1%<1%<1%
Cedar Rapids Jefferson1-40.3859<1%<1%<1%
Ames1-40.40010%0%0%
Des Moines East1-40.34250%0%0%
Dubuque Hempstead0-50.34630%0%0%
Marshalltown1-40.33470%0%0%
Muscatine0-50.31870%0%0%
Sioux City North0-50.33350%0%0%