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Iowa Class 1A Playoff Machine

Starting…

Who makes the Class 1A playoffs, where they're seeded and who they'd play. Pick your team, then tap any game in the game list to change its winner and watch everything update.

Settings
  • Focus team: the team the Team and Pods pages are about. Anyone can pick their own. To link straight to a team, add # and its name to the page link, e.g. #johnston or #dallas-center-grimes.
  • Reset / Favorites: "Reset every game to the odds" clears your picks. "Favorites win every game" gives one exact season with no upsets. Your own picks in the game list always override the odds.
  • Non-5A games: games between two teams outside 5A, like 4A vs 4A. They never decide who's in directly, but they shift RPI. If Le Mars (4A) loses more games, every 5A team that played Le Mars gets a slightly lower opponents' win %. "Play out at the model's odds" lets them go either way (more realistic). "Favorites always win" locks them, which is needed for one exact RPI table.
  • Runs: how many seasons to simulate. More runs means steadier numbers, but slower. With 15 or fewer uncertain games the page skips simulation and runs every combination exactly.
  • Save scenario: keeps your picks in this browser only; other people don't see them.

Remaining 5A games

Class 1A playoff projections at a glance

Updated Sep 26, 2026. Title favorites: West Lyon (44%), Regina Catholic (35%), South Hardin (12%), Aplington-Parkersburg (6%), Treynor (1%). On the bubble: Union Community (90%), Columbus Catholic (85%), Eagle Grove (81%), Hinton (73%), Cardinal (56%), Durant (43%), MVAOCOU (31%), Sumner-Fredericksburg (25%).

TeamRecordDistrictWin districtMake playoffsReach DomeWin state
Lawton-Bronson4-1D11%>99%1%0%
West Marshall3-2D746%>99%3%<1%
Eddyville-Blakesburg-Fremont5-1D62%>99%1%<1%
Aplington-Parkersburg5-0D492%>99%72%6%
South Hardin5-0D383%>99%74%12%
Treynor4-1D895%>99%25%1%
Regina Catholic5-0D698%>99%85%35%
West Lyon4-1D195%>99%80%44%
Beckman Catholic5-0D569%>99%11%<1%
Shenandoah2-3D8<1%>99%<1%0%
Sigourney Keota2-3D6<1%>99%1%<1%
Underwood4-1D8<1%>99%7%<1%
Hudson3-2D47%>99%1%0%
Clarion-Goldfield-Dows4-1D316%>99%4%<1%
Cascade3-2D52%>99%<1%0%
Interstate 354-1D754%>99%2%<1%
Northeast5-0D529%>99%3%<1%
MFL MarMac2-3D5<1%>99%<1%0%
East Sac County5-0D243%>99%2%<1%
South Central Calhoun4-1D233%>99%3%<1%
Pleasantville3-2D7<1%>99%2%<1%
Tri-Center1-4D85%99%2%<1%
Grundy Center3-2D3<1%98%5%<1%
Emmetsburg3-2D221%98%<1%0%
Manson-NW Webster2-3D23%97%<1%0%
Ridge View2-3D14%96%12%<1%
Ogden2-3D7<1%95%<1%0%
Union Community3-2D4<1%90%<1%0%
Columbus Catholic1-4D4<1%85%<1%0%
Eagle Grove3-2D3<1%81%<1%0%
Hinton2-3D10%73%2%<1%
Cardinal2-4D60%56%0%0%
Durant1-4D60%43%0%0%
MVAOCOU3-2D1<1%31%<1%0%
Sumner-Fredericksburg1-4D40%25%0%0%
Central Springs1-4D30%16%0%0%
West Central Valley3-3D70%6%0%0%
South Hamilton1-4D20%5%0%0%
Garner Hayfield Ventura0-5D30%5%0%0%
Missouri Valley1-5D80%1%0%0%
Pocahontas Area2-3D20%1%0%0%
Louisa-Muscatine1-4D60%<1%0%0%
Lisbon2-3D50%<1%0%0%
Camanche0-5D50%<1%0%0%
Jesup0-5D40%<1%0%0%
Alta-Aurelia0-5D10%0%0%0%
Panorama0-6D70%0%0%0%
Red Oak0-6D80%0%0%0%