IowaHSPlayoffsPresented by

Iowa Class 4A Playoff Machine

Starting…

Who makes the Class 4A playoffs, where they're seeded and who they'd play. Pick your team, then tap any game in the game list to change its winner and watch everything update.

Settings
  • Focus team: the team the Team and Pods pages are about. Anyone can pick their own. To link straight to a team, add # and its name to the page link, e.g. #johnston or #dallas-center-grimes.
  • Reset / Favorites: "Reset every game to the odds" clears your picks. "Favorites win every game" gives one exact season with no upsets. Your own picks in the game list always override the odds.
  • Non-5A games: games between two teams outside 5A, like 4A vs 4A. They never decide who's in directly, but they shift RPI. If Le Mars (4A) loses more games, every 5A team that played Le Mars gets a slightly lower opponents' win %. "Play out at the model's odds" lets them go either way (more realistic). "Favorites always win" locks them, which is needed for one exact RPI table.
  • Runs: how many seasons to simulate. More runs means steadier numbers, but slower. With 15 or fewer uncertain games the page skips simulation and runs every combination exactly.
  • Save scenario: keeps your picks in this browser only; other people don't see them.

Remaining 5A games

Class 4A playoff projections at a glance

Updated Sep 26, 2026. Title favorites: Xavier (42%), Western Dubuque (24%), Lewis Central (14%), Sergeant Bluff-Luton (10%), Waverly-Shell Rock (4%). On the bubble: Spencer (85%), Ballard (70%), Davenport North (61%), Gilbert (48%), North Scott (44%), Decorah (42%), Grinnell (34%), Newton (23%).

TeamRecordDistrictWin districtMake playoffsReach DomeWin state
Lewis Central3-2D694%>99%61%14%
Western Dubuque4-1D396%>99%76%24%
Sergeant Bluff-Luton5-0D198%>99%66%10%
Xavier5-0D269%>99%85%42%
Waverly-Shell Rock4-1D228%>99%31%4%
Clear Creek Amana4-1D440%99%12%<1%
North Polk3-2D531%98%24%3%
Fort Dodge4-1D1<1%97%9%<1%
Glenwood3-2D6<1%97%2%<1%
Carlisle5-0D522%97%9%<1%
Pella3-2D453%93%16%1%
ADM4-1D66%93%3%<1%
Spencer3-2D11%85%<1%0%
Ballard3-2D539%70%2%<1%
Davenport North3-2D3<1%61%1%<1%
Gilbert4-1D58%48%<1%<1%
North Scott2-3D34%44%<1%0%
Decorah2-3D22%42%1%<1%
Grinnell3-2D4<1%34%<1%0%
Newton2-3D47%23%<1%0%
Le Mars2-3D1<1%15%<1%<1%
Cedar Rapids Washington2-3D2<1%4%<1%0%
Sioux City West4-1D1<1%1%0%0%
Bondurant-Farrar0-5D5<1%<1%0%0%
Clinton3-2D3<1%<1%0%0%
Boone2-3D60%<1%0%0%
Marion1-4D40%<1%0%0%
Denison-Schleswig2-3D60%<1%0%0%
Burlington1-4D30%0%0%0%
Council Bluffs Jefferson0-5D60%0%0%0%
Davenport West0-5D30%0%0%0%
Des Moines North0-5D50%0%0%0%
Mason City1-4D20%0%0%0%
Oskaloosa0-5D40%0%0%0%
Storm Lake1-4D10%0%0%0%
Waterloo East2-3D20%0%0%0%