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Iowa Class 3A Playoff Machine

Starting…

Who makes the Class 3A playoffs, where they're seeded and who they'd play. Pick your team, then tap any game in the game list to change its winner and watch everything update.

Settings
  • Focus team: the team the Team and Pods pages are about. Anyone can pick their own. To link straight to a team, add # and its name to the page link, e.g. #johnston or #dallas-center-grimes.
  • Reset / Favorites: "Reset every game to the odds" clears your picks. "Favorites win every game" gives one exact season with no upsets. Your own picks in the game list always override the odds.
  • Non-5A games: games between two teams outside 5A, like 4A vs 4A. They never decide who's in directly, but they shift RPI. If Le Mars (4A) loses more games, every 5A team that played Le Mars gets a slightly lower opponents' win %. "Play out at the model's odds" lets them go either way (more realistic). "Favorites always win" locks them, which is needed for one exact RPI table.
  • Runs: how many seasons to simulate. More runs means steadier numbers, but slower. With 15 or fewer uncertain games the page skips simulation and runs every combination exactly.
  • Save scenario: keeps your picks in this browser only; other people don't see them.

Remaining 5A games

Class 3A playoff projections at a glance

Updated Sep 26, 2026. Title favorites: Solon (48%), Clear Lake (23%), Des Moines Christian (20%), West Delaware (6%), Wahlert Catholic (2%). On the bubble: Bishop Heelan (76%), Nevada (69%), Atlantic (66%), Harlan Community (48%), Fairfield (46%), Washington (42%), Algona (23%), Creston (11%).

TeamRecordDistrictWin districtMake playoffsReach DomeWin state
Clear Lake5-0D261%>99%68%23%
Wahlert Catholic4-1D366%>99%41%2%
Des Moines Christian5-0D594%>99%77%20%
Solon5-0D4>99%>99%85%48%
West Delaware4-1D238%>99%40%6%
Carroll4-1D683%>99%33%1%
Mount Pleasant5-0D4<1%>99%3%<1%
Sioux Center5-0D188%>99%27%<1%
Mount Vernon4-1D325%>99%10%<1%
Assumption3-2D38%94%3%<1%
Iowa Falls-Alden3-2D2<1%93%5%<1%
Williamsburg2-3D50%90%1%<1%
Bishop Heelan2-3D15%76%5%<1%
Nevada2-3D56%69%1%<1%
Atlantic3-2D614%66%<1%0%
Harlan Community1-4D62%48%<1%0%
Fairfield2-3D40%46%<1%0%
Washington3-2D4<1%42%<1%0%
Algona2-3D14%23%<1%0%
Creston2-4D6<1%11%<1%0%
Fort Madison3-2D40%11%0%0%
Greene County3-2D6<1%6%<1%0%
Webster City1-4D1<1%6%0%0%
Independence1-4D2<1%5%<1%0%
MOC-Floyd Valley2-3D1<1%5%<1%0%
Humboldt0-5D1<1%4%<1%0%
Central DeWitt2-3D3<1%4%<1%0%
Center Point-Urbana2-3D30%<1%0%0%
Benton1-4D20%<1%0%0%
Charles City2-3D20%<1%0%0%
Keokuk1-4D40%<1%0%0%
Knoxville1-4D50%0%0%0%
Maquoketa0-5D30%0%0%0%
Perry2-3D60%0%0%0%
Saydel1-4D50%0%0%0%
Winterset0-5D50%0%0%0%