Class 4A, District 1 · 5-0 (1-0 district) · Updated Sep 26, 2026
Sergeant Bluff-Luton (5-0) is projected to finish 9-0 and makes the Class 4A playoffs in >99% of 20,000 simulated seasons, most likely finishing 1st in District 1 (wins it 98%). Its most likely first playoff game: home against #15 North Scott. Chance to reach the UNI-Dome semifinals: 66%; to win the Class 4A state title: 10%.
Open the interactive Class 4A playoff machine for Sergeant Bluff-Luton →| Week | Opponent | Our pick | Chance | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | at Storm Lake | Sergeant Bluff-Luton | >99% | Lock |
| Wk 7 | vs Le Mars | Sergeant Bluff-Luton | 96% | Lock |
| Wk 8 | at Sioux City West | Sergeant Bluff-Luton | >99% | Lock |
| Wk 9 | vs Spencer | Sergeant Bluff-Luton | 95% | Lock |
Lock picks (90%+) were right 97% of the time on Iowa games from 2021 to 2025.
| Team | Overall | District | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergeant Bluff-Luton | 5-0 | 1-0 | 98% | 2% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| Fort Dodge | 4-1 | 0-1 | <1% | 75% | 19% | 5% | 97% |
| Spencer | 3-2 | 1-0 | 1% | 17% | 64% | 13% | 85% |
| Le Mars | 2-3 | 0-1 | <1% | 5% | 14% | 67% | 15% |
| Sioux City West | 4-1 | 1-0 | <1% | <1% | 3% | 15% | 1% |
| Storm Lake | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Chance of each district finish. Ties go by head-to-head, then the 17-point tiebreaker.