Class 4A, District 1 · 2-3 (0-1 district) · Updated Sep 27, 2026
Le Mars (2-3) is projected to finish 4-5 and makes the Class 4A playoffs in 15% of 20,000 simulated seasons, most likely finishing 4th in District 1 (wins it <1%). Its most likely first playoff game: at #2 Sergeant Bluff-Luton. Chance to reach the UNI-Dome semifinals: <1%; to win the Class 4A state title: 0%.
Open the interactive Class 4A playoff machine for Le Mars →| Week | Opponent | Our pick | Chance | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | vs Sioux City West | Le Mars | 88% | Strong |
| Wk 7 | at Sergeant Bluff-Luton | Sergeant Bluff-Luton | 96% | Lock |
| Wk 8 | vs Fort Dodge | Fort Dodge | 78% | Strong |
| Wk 9 | at Storm Lake | Le Mars | 98% | Lock |
Lock picks (90%+) were right 97% of the time on Iowa games from 2021 to 2025.
| Team | Overall | District | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergeant Bluff-Luton | 5-0 | 1-0 | 98% | 2% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| Fort Dodge | 4-1 | 0-1 | <1% | 75% | 19% | 5% | 97% |
| Spencer | 3-2 | 1-0 | 1% | 17% | 64% | 13% | 85% |
| Le Mars | 2-3 | 0-1 | <1% | 5% | 14% | 67% | 15% |
| Sioux City West | 4-1 | 1-0 | <1% | <1% | 3% | 15% | 1% |
| Storm Lake | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Chance of each district finish. Ties go by head-to-head, then the 17-point tiebreaker.